Aviation turbulence forecasting at DWD with ICON: methodology, case studies and verification

Abstract We present a detailed evaluation of the turbulence forecast product EDP (Eddy Dissipation Parameter) used at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). It is based on parameterization scheme TURBDIFF which operational within ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic) numerical weather prediction model operationally by DWD. For aviation purposes, procedure provides cubic root eddy dissipation rate ε 1/3 as an overall index. This quantity widely measure for intensity experienced aircraft. The includes additional sources turbulent kinetic energy with particular relevance to are briefly introduced. These describe generation subgrid-scale action wake eddies, mountain waves, convection well horizontal shear found close fronts or jet stream. Furthermore, we introduce post-processing, calibration empirical EDR distribution, and demonstrate potential limitations final EDP-based considering several case studies typical events. Finally, reveal forecasting capability this verifying results against one year aircraft in situ measurements from commercial find that forecasted performs favorably when compared Ellrod In particular, signal deep convection, accounted product, advantageous spatial non-locality allowed verification procedure.